Trench Radar · refreshed through the day

Alive right now, with receipts.

Not a trending feed. These are launches from developers with a measured on-chain record, currently showing real holders and live volume — each with its stage, its dev's actual graduation history, and the honest odds of the next milestone. Every radar edition is graded in public below, round-trips included. Research, not signals — nothing here is financial advice.

generated 2026-09-28 07:10 UTC · liveness bar: snapshot <2h old · mcap ≥ $10K · holders ≥ 50

31,168
pump.fun launches seen 24h
8,651
lifecycles tracked
24
milestone crossings 24h
On the radar

Live tokens meeting the bar.

tokenmcapliquidityholders buys/sells 1hstagedev record agechart
$RICHARD$41K$25K2251955/1464attention79/277 graduated2.3hBAUyDW…
$NewGuy$26K$20K2241308/933attention28/385 graduated0.5hBQTovt…
$Vortex$38K$24K53952/0attention6/29 graduated116.8hHam46f…

Read the dev column first. "2/5 graduated" means this wallet's previous launches — the only validated positive signal we have (dev history passed out-of-sample testing; most popular signals didn't). Being on this radar is measured attention, not a recommendation: in our reconstructed cohort, 56% of tokens that trend still round-trip.

Milestone odds

What actually gets to the next stage.

Observed transition rates from our lifecycle tracker (good-dev cohort, provisional while n grows — we publish the n so you can weigh it yourself).

10K → 25K37.3%n=24172.2% round-trip
25K → 50K57.1%n=21280.2% round-trip
50K → GRAD60.7%n=16869.7% round-trip
GRAD → 100K3.2%n=177422.8% round-trip
100K → 250K49.2%n=12274.2% round-trip
Accountability

The previous radar, graded.

Every edition's picks get re-measured on the next publish — winners, flats, and round-trips all shown. No feed that sells excitement will ever do this to its own picks.

tokenmcap thenmcap nowmultoutcome
$Wazz$36K$36K1.00xflat
$WUMPUS$22K$22K1.00xflat

This page regenerates through the day.

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