Dev Reality · measured from 1,103,830 launches

Who is actually launching these coins?

We watch every pump.fun launch from our own event stream and tie each one to the wallet that created it. These are the measured facts — base rates, launch factories, sell timing, buybacks — with the wallets linked so you can verify everything. Facts, not accusations; nothing here is financial advice.

generated 2026-07-20 16:10 UTC · creator = wallet signing the create tx · graduation = bonding-curve completion

1.32%
of launches ever graduate
223,393
creator wallets measured
1,354
wallets with 100+ launches (538,334 launches)
The launch industry

Most launches are manufactured, not made.

The biggest creator wallets are factories: hundreds of launches per day, the same ticker relaunched over and over, almost none completing the curve. If you've ever felt like the trenches are a conveyor belt — here is the conveyor belt.

walletlaunchesper daygraduatedgrad rateticker reuse
bwamJz…fSXa14,289347.591651.15%54.3%
8gM4gn…Y96e9,307784.72941.01%88.4%
7FVfSd…nGt96,910186.39781.13%98.5%
DVhwSE…nre95,959146.8600.0%81.9%
F3WmHx…FLMS5,580215.1800.0%98.9%
9RrKUh…FBj94,934163.790.18%98.1%
BuBMjN…7SWU4,603116.56220.48%17.1%
4UKLdT…hSiP4,485120.61350.78%99.9%
Ep1ZM5…41dP4,283285.1600.0%19.2%
8eRqKa…HiQB3,476138.2100.29%99.7%
Sell timing & buybacks — the norms, measured

"Dev sold" isn't the scandal. The repeat business is.

Selling the initial dev allocation early is standard practice — many buyers read a clean early dev exit as a good sign (no overhang left to dump), and some devs buy back in later to re-commit. So we don't score a fast sell by itself. We measure it in context: how often, across how many launches, at what graduation rate, and whether the dev ever comes back. A trader exiting one launch and a factory exiting four hundred a day are different animals — the table makes the difference visible. Recent-window samples per wallet, not lifetime audits.

wallettotal launcheslaunches in samplefirst-sell ≤10minmedian time to first sellmedian frac of initial soldbought back
bwamJz…fSXa14,2891111/110.1 min1.00/11
8gM4gn…Y96e9,3071818/182.1 min1.00/18
7FVfSd…nGt96,91054/51.0 min1.00/5
DVhwSE…nre95,95933/30.6 min1.00/3
9RrKUh…FBj94,9341717/170.5 min1.00/17
BuBMjN…7SWU4,6032928/290.3 min1.01/29
4UKLdT…hSiP4,48544/40.3 min1.00/4
Ep1ZM5…41dP4,283311/3110.2 min1.00/31
4FEGV9…DAiU3,3251515/150.5 min1.06/15
2Lt12W…m5xo3,2302726/270.0 min1.01/27
EwNVgV…nqYE3,0371918/190.3 min1.01/19
29yFze…kbw83,0011010/100.0 min0.1870/10
2xpKBk…z8Ed2,96266/60.1 min0.4150/6
whamNN…oLbx2,81287/80.0 min0.050/8
AWGAwN…cQT62,7702626/260.6 min1.02/26
5FqUo9…y17z2,76422/20.5 min0.5020/2
2iC9Ho…qejb2,6461414/140.2 min1.00/14
B1cJJM…ygbL2,50311/10.4 min1.00/1
8YcbyX…d7SJ2,4732424/240.1 min1.00/24
95X5Yd…6tPV2,44600/0— min0/0
7ZV54H…ziaP2,1581414/140.1 min0.750/14
Au8oJ2…RdcU2,0461311/130.5 min1.01/13
The one thing that held up out-of-sample

Dev history persists.

We split every prolific dev's launches chronologically — classified them only on their early launches, measured only their later ones (7,412 devs, 167,723 later launches). Devs with at least one prior graduation completed future launches at 2.139% vs 0.307% for devs who had never graduated anything — and the gap widens when the big farms are excluded. Past KOL performance didn't survive this same test. Dev history did.

Honest limits: graduation measures completion, not your PnL — and a dev can buy their own graduation. Whether good-dev tokens pay buyers better is still accruing data (directional, underpowered so far). We publish that either way when it resolves.

Method

Creator = the wallet signing the create transaction on our live event stream (mis-parsed feed rows are filtered and the filter is regression-tested). Graduation = bonding-curve completion (migration event). Sell/buyback timing from on-chain wallet activity, sampled over each wallet's recent window. Full method on the methodology page.